NDMA Issues Fresh Warning for Rain and Storms
Pakistan's National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) on Sunday warned of fresh rains and storms expected next week, following the deaths of 17 people in rain-related incidents across the country since late June. The warning comes as Pakistan's annual monsoon season, typically running from June to September, regularly triggers flash floods, landslides, and house collapses, particularly in the mountainous north and low-lying river plains.
Casualties and Damage Since June 26
According to the NDMA, at least 17 people have been killed and more than 40 others injured in rains, roof and wall collapses, lightning strikes, and similar incidents since June 26. The authority stated that an active weather system is expected to bring isolated rain, wind, or thunderstorms to Azad Kashmir, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Islamabad, Pothohar, and northeastern Punjab regions starting Monday.
Expected Rainfall Patterns
The NDMA said: “Scattered rain-wind/thunderstorms with isolated heavy falls are expected over the upper catchments of the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej river systems, including Islamabad, Potohar, Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, North Punjab and North Balochistan.” The most widespread rainfall is expected on July 7, and the system is expected to last until July 10.
Impact on Rivers and Reservoirs
The authority noted that rainfall over the upper catchments is expected to slightly increase inflows into Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs, while flows in the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej rivers are likely to increase slightly during July 7–10. “No significant river flooding is indicated at present. However, localized increases in hill torrents and smaller streams are expected,” the NDMA added.
Climate Vulnerability and Past Disasters
Pakistan is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, despite contributing less than one percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Record floods in 2022 killed more than 1,700 people, affected 33 million people, and caused over $30 billion in damage and economic losses, according to government and World Bank figures. Last year, the country experienced riverine floods after India released excess water into three rivers, devastating farmlands in Punjab province and affecting large swathes of the wheat crop.
