The trials of two prominent Ugandan government critics are set to resume on Tuesday, with President Yoweri Museveni remaining silent while his son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, intensifies a crackdown on dissent. Kainerugaba, 52, the Chief of Defence Forces and Museveni's son, has ordered the arrest of leading activists and politicians in recent weeks. Over the weekend, he shut down the main independent media group, declaring, "I DO NOT believe in a free press!"
Background of the Crackdown
Kainerugaba is known for controversial social media posts, ranging from boasts about abducting and torturing opponents to jokes about marrying Beyonce. He has repeatedly stated he will be the next president after Museveni, 81, who has ruled Uganda for 40 years, leaves office. Analysts say Kainerugaba has become the dominant force in the country, with a mounting crackdown on critics. His father, who won a seventh term less than six months ago, has made no comment on his son's actions.
Gerald Walulya, senior lecturer in journalism at Makerere University, noted that people previously took Kainerugaba's threats "as a joke." However, "for the first time we are seeing him being able to demonstrate power without any form of restraint from the father," Walulya said.
Court Cases Resume
On Tuesday, a Kampala court will hear long-standing treason charges against opposition leader Kizza Besigye, 70, who has been held in detention since his abduction from Kenya in 2024. Separately, the court will hear a case against Besigye's lawyer, Erias Lukwago, arrested this month on Kainerugaba's orders. Lukwago was preparing to serve legal papers summoning Kainerugaba over Besigye's abduction when he was himself arrested and now faces accusations of failing to reveal an alleged plot against the state.
Kainerugaba has made no secret of his disdain for due process, writing on X after Lukwago's detention: "I'm proud of ALL the hurt and pain I will inflict on the CRIMINAL LUKWAGO!"
Power Dynamics and Popularity
There has long been speculation that Museveni was grooming his son to take over, though it has never been officially acknowledged. Kainerugaba trained at Britain's elite military academy Sandhurst and rose quickly through the ranks to become army chief in 2024. He runs his own political movement, the Patriotic League of Uganda, and often muses about taking over as president. "Do you Ugandans love me? Will you vote for me if I stand after Mzee?" he posted on X this month, using an honorific for Museveni.
Political columnist Yusuf Serunkuma of The Observer newspaper said the situation remains unclear, with Kainerugaba insisting he is only following his father's orders. "I'm not sure whether exhibiting power and cultivating fear is part of the strategy for Muhoozi or if he is simply doing what comes naturally to him... as a soldier," Serunkuma said.
Although Kainerugaba has 1.3 million X followers, his real popularity nationwide is untested. "If he were strategic, he would have taken lessons from his father and cultivated connections with the general public and the international community," Serunkuma said. "Instead he's gone out of his way to break those connections."
Opposition Neutralized
Much of the Ugandan opposition has been neutered in recent months. Besigye, who has run against Museveni multiple times, was snatched from Nairobi by armed men in an incident that drew international condemnation. His family has accused the Ugandan state of torturing him and said he faces health issues. Kainerugaba has also targeted several rights groups, including Agora, which has been summoned to appear before police on Tuesday over allegations of fraud and money laundering.
The main opponent to Museveni in recent elections, singer-turned-politician Bobi Wine, was forced to flee the country after Kainerugaba threatened to hunt him down and behead him.
