The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has released its seasonal outlook for July to September, forecasting above-average temperatures across much of the country while warning of increased risks of flooding, landslides and heat-related hazards.
Temperature and Rainfall Patterns
According to the forecast, Balochistan, Punjab and southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are expected to experience temperatures above the seasonal average. Meanwhile, Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are likely to receive normal to slightly above-normal rainfall.
Flood and Landslide Risks
The department warned that heavier rainfall in mountainous areas could increase the likelihood of flash floods and landslides, while river flows and reservoir water levels may also rise during the season. The forecast further indicated that intense rainfall in major urban centres of Sindh, Punjab, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa could trigger urban flooding in low-lying areas.
Glacier Melt and GLOF Threat
The PMD also cautioned that rising temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir may accelerate glacier melt, heightening the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).
Water Shortages and Crop Impact
In contrast, below-average rainfall in parts of Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan could result in water shortages for Kharif crops and increase irrigation requirements for farmers. The report added that changing weather patterns may bring strong winds, dust storms, thunderstorms and hailstorms capable of damaging crops and orchards.
Heatwave and Health Risks
Periodic heatwave conditions are also expected, particularly across southern Punjab and the plains of Sindh, where heat stress is likely to intensify. The department warned that prolonged warm and humid conditions could also increase the risk of mosquito-borne diseases, including Dengue fever.
Advisory for Public and Farmers
The PMD advised the public to avoid prolonged outdoor exposure during peak daytime hours, remain well hydrated, and wear light clothing during periods of extreme heat. Farmers have been urged to take protective measures for standing crops, while tourists should remain cautious when travelling in areas affected by heavy rainfall and adverse weather.
