The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that the El Niño climate phenomenon will rapidly intensify into a strong event between July and September, significantly raising the probability of extreme weather across the globe. The UN agency confirmed that El Niño conditions have already developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen swiftly in the coming months.
Rapid Development Expected
According to the WMO's monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, there is a clear trajectory towards "a rapid development into a strong El Niño event during July-September." The agency classifies El Niño events on a four-tier scale: weak, moderate, strong, or very strong. The current forecast places the event at the third-highest level, indicating a strong El Niño.
"El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in many parts of the world," the WMO stated.
Ocean Temperature Anomalies
Forecasts from leading global climate centres, employing diverse models, show consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The WMO noted that seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions. The models display "remarkable agreement, providing high confidence in the outlook," the agency added.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months, alternating with its opposite phase, La Niña, and neutral conditions in between.
Global Impacts and Heatwave Risks
The WMO emphasised that El Niño is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence spreading across many regions. Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is projected to remain generally warmer than average.
The last strong El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time highest, with global temperatures reaching approximately 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. While El Niño usually peaks between November and February, the resulting temperature spike typically occurs later.
The agency urged countries to prepare for potential extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall, as the phenomenon unfolds.
