US Influence in the Middle East Declines; Power Vacuum Emerges
The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is undergoing a significant transformation as the United States, once the dominant power, sees its influence waning. According to a retired Pakistan Army brigadier, Imran Malik, the US-Israel Combine’s power and influence in the region have been challenged by Iran, found wanting, and are thus severely attenuated. The failed Iran war may have crystallized and sped up the US’s expected egress from the region, creating a tangible power vacuum and strategic spaces for regional states to break away from the US-led West.
Regional States Seek New Alignments
New, potent strategic alignments, partnerships, and alliances are evolving independently of the US-led West and regardless of the Israel factor. Malik argues that the US-led West and Israel have exploited the lack of unity among regional states, destroying them piecemeal. The moment of truth has arrived for these states to move towards unity and collective security, pooling resources to amass a multidimensional deterrent against aggression.
Pakistan and KSA’s Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia may have laid the foundation for a broad-based formal, binding strategic and defence alignment through the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA). This could be a harbinger of a radically transformed Middle East-Greater Middle East Region (ME-GMER) Complex and a new world order. Malik suggests that the R4, created after the Iran war, might be subsumed into the SMDA, bringing Turkiye and Egypt into the alignment.
Expansion of SMDA: A No-War Pact and Inclusion of Iran
To block malign intrusions of the US-led West and Israel, the expanded SMDA must undertake a no-war pact between Iran and all Gulf Arab states. Pakistan should take the initiative for this. Iran, along with Qatar, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, and other GCC countries, should join the expanded SMDA, making it extremely potent in economic, military, technological, energy, and manpower dimensions. This would create a formidable sphere of influence and deter aggression.
Strategic Reach and Economic Dominance
The expanded SMDA would dominate the world’s most important fossil fuel deposits in the ME-GMER Complex and major global trade corridors, including the Hormuz Straits, Bab el Mandab, and the Suez Canal. It would have the potential to become an indigenous net stabilizer and net security provider in the region.
Retrieving UAE from US-Israel-India Axis
Malik emphasizes the need to retrieve the UAE from the emerging US-Israel-UAE-India axis, which could act as a Trojan Horse to scuttle the emerging strategic alliance. A united front backed by regional powers could create the geopolitical environment to tackle the Palestinian and Kashmir issues from a position of relative strength.
Global Dimensions: Role of China and Russia
At the global level, the expanded SMDA could become the foundation for a new world order. It requires public support from China and Russia, allowing regional states to move out of the US-led West’s exploitative sphere. The US is likely to reduce its presence, and China and Russia must exploit the geopolitical vacuum. China may expand its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) simultaneously, using the Pakistan-Iran region as a launchpad into the Arabian Peninsula, Africa, and Europe.
Integration with Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
Bringing the expanded SMDA into the fold of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) would allow China to dominate the ME-GMER Complex without conflict, as per Sun Tzu’s principles. This would give China a ready-made strategic alliance with regional, extra-regional, and global dimensions, acting as a massive deterrent against malign intrusions.
CRIPTS: A New Global Pole?
With explicit Chinese and Russian support, the alliance of China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia (CRIPTS), and other regional powers could evolve into an alternate, competing pole to the floundering US-led order. This could determine the peaceful rise of the region and global economic development.
Conclusion: Preparing for Inevitable Changes
A radically transformed Middle East, sans the US-Israel Combine, will redefine the contours of the emerging new world order. Malik questions whether Pakistan, the region, and the world are anticipating, preparing, and positioning themselves for these phenomenal, inevitable changes.
