Middle East airlines showed signs of recovery in May as passenger demand decline eased to 28.4 percent from 46.6 percent a month earlier despite the ongoing conflict. The improvement helped limit the global decline in air passenger demand to 2.2 percent from 3.4 percent in April, as disruptions caused by the regional conflict began to stabilize, according to the latest data from the International Air Transport Association.
Global Trends Excluding Middle East
Excluding the Middle East, global passenger demand grew 0.7 percent year on year, underscoring the regional conflict’s outsized impact on overall industry performance. The recovery reflected easing operational disruptions after widespread airspace restrictions and flight cancellations in April, when the conflict had its most severe impact on regional carriers.
IATA Director General Comments
Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said: “Overall, May demand still appeared to be largely resilient in the face of high fuel prices and air fares. While the recent sharp drop in oil prices is an encouraging development, the challenges created by the war will likely persist for some time.”
International and Domestic Demand
The report also said that international demand declined 1.6 percent, while domestic markets contracted by 3.1 percent. Overall, industry capacity, measured in available seat kilometers, or ASKs, fell 2.3 percent, resulting in a record-high May load factor of 83.5 percent, up 0.1 percentage points from a year earlier.
Regional Performance
European carriers posted 3.8 percent growth in passenger demand, benefiting from a continued shift toward direct services between Europe and Asia, including a 15 percent rise in traffic to Asia. Asia-Pacific airlines saw modest passenger demand growth of 1.3 percent despite tighter limits on jet fuel imports in Vietnam that led to significant capacity cuts on intra-Asia routes. In international markets, demand growth among Latin American carriers stood at 10.5 percent, while African and North American carriers recorded growth of 8.9 percent and 1 percent, respectively.
Future Outlook on Fuel Costs
Regarding the future outlook, Walsh said: “Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain and it is likely to take time before the benefit of lower oil prices is reflected in ‘normalized’ jet fuel pricing.” He added: “In the meantime, airlines who are operating on a 2 percent margin will have little choice but to continue testing demand resilience with higher fares that attempt to cover elevated fuel costs.”
Air Cargo Contrast
The passenger figures came a day after IATA data showed Middle Eastern air cargo demand fell 8.9 percent year on year in May, making it the weakest performance of any region. Capacity among Middle Eastern carriers declined 9.2 percent from a year earlier, with IATA linking the contraction to the continuing conflict in the region. The Middle East performance contrasts with the growth seen across most of the global air cargo market, with worldwide shipment demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers, increasing 6 percent compared with May 2025, including growth of 6.5 percent in international operations.
