Pakistan currently finds itself at the critical junction of two rapidly accelerating emergencies: one concerning its people and the other concerning its environment. These deeply interconnected crises possess the potential to reverse decades of national progress if they are not addressed with immediate and unified action.
A Sobering Demographic Reality
The recently concluded 2023 digital census delivered a stark warning about the nation's future. The data reveals that Pakistan's population is expanding at a rate of 2.55 percent each year, making it the fastest-growing population in South Asia, trailing only Afghanistan. This alarming pace indicates that the number of people in the country could double in just a single generation.
Several underlying factors drive this trend. The contraceptive prevalence rate remains stagnant at approximately 34 percent, while the unmet need for family-planning services is significant, hovering near 17 percent. Furthermore, the total fertility rate stands at 3.6 children per woman, which is substantially higher than the replacement level of 2.1. These figures point to more than just rapid growth; they expose critical weaknesses in public health systems, women's empowerment, and overall governance.
On the Frontlines of Climate Change
Simultaneously, Pakistan is enduring the severe impacts of a changing climate, despite contributing less than one percent to global greenhouse gas emissions. The past ten years have been marked by unprecedented environmental disasters, including record-shattering heatwaves, devastating glacial lake outburst floods, and intense urban cloudbursts that submerge major cities.
A catastrophic example was the 2022 floods, which impacted a staggering 33 million people and resulted in immense economic damage. Scientific data from the Pakistan Meteorological Department shows that the country's average temperature has increased by nearly 1°C since 1960. The frequency of heatwave days has multiplied, and monsoon patterns have become unpredictable, alternating between destructive heavy rains and extended periods of drought.
This environmental stress is compounded by a critical water shortage. Pakistan's per-capita water availability has catastrophically fallen from over 5,000 cubic meters in the 1950s to below 1,000 cubic meters today, officially classifying the nation as water-scarce. It is no surprise that global assessments consistently rank Pakistan among the top five countries most vulnerable to climate change.
The Interconnected Crisis and a Path Forward
The link between the country's population dynamics and its climate vulnerability is powerful and often overlooked. Every new citizen increases the demand for essential resources like food, water, and energy, placing additional strain on systems that are already depleted. Economists refer to this as the scale effect, where a larger population leads to greater environmental pressure.
Rapid urbanization, which is growing at over three percent annually, concentrates large populations in high-risk areas such as floodplains and heat-prone cities. Poor urban planning and unregulated construction further increase exposure to climate hazards. Pakistan's demographic structure, with two-thirds of its citizens under the age of 30, presents a critical choice. This youth bulge can either become an engine for a green transformation or a source of significant social instability.
The solution lies in a cohesive national strategy that integrates demographic policy with climate adaptation and sustainable development. This framework should be built on four essential pillars: empowering women through rights-based family planning, investing in education and green skills for the youth, guiding cities toward climate-resilient urban development, and restoring ecosystems through robust water and environmental governance.
The challenge is immense, but the necessary path is clear. Integrating population planning into climate strategy is not a matter of choice but of existential importance for Pakistan. The future of the nation will be determined not only by its response to rising global temperatures but by how it manages the growing number of its people who must navigate a hotter, hungrier, and thirstier world.
