The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced on Tuesday that El Nino conditions are expected to develop in the coming months, raising the likelihood of extreme weather events worldwide and exacerbating the effects of global warming.
High Probability of El Nino Emergence
The UN weather agency stated there is an 80% chance that El Nino will emerge during the June-August period, with the probability of it persisting through at least November reaching near or above 90%. Unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific are fueling the development of this climate pattern, which influences global temperature and rainfall patterns and increases the risk of weather extremes.
UN Secretary-General's Urgent Call
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the urgency in a video statement on Tuesday: "The science is clear: El Nino is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is." He added, "El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed."
WMO Secretary-General's Warnings
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the phenomenon could intensify droughts, heavy rainfall, and heat waves on land and in the oceans. "We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The most recent El Nino, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024," Saulo said. She highlighted that advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital for saving lives and mitigating the impact on economies and communities.
Understanding El Nino
El Nino is the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It typically develops every two to seven years and can last around nine to 12 months.
Global Temperature and Regional Impacts
WMO forecasts for June through August indicate above-normal temperatures across nearly all regions of the world, increasing risks of heat stress and accelerating drought conditions where rainfall is reduced. The agency noted that El Nino is typically associated with wetter conditions in parts of southern South America, the southern US, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia, while bringing drier weather to Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia. It warned that the climate pattern could increase the likelihood of flooding in some regions while worsening drought in others, underscoring the need for preparedness measures and early warning systems to protect lives and livelihoods.
