The United Nations has issued a stark warning that global average temperatures are likely to remain at or near record levels this year and for the next four years. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported on Thursday that there is a 75 percent chance that the five-year mean temperature from 2026 to 2030 will surpass the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Record-Breaking Trends
According to the WMO, the 11 hottest individual years on record have all occurred since 2015, and this trend is expected to continue. There is an 86 percent likelihood that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded. The agency's Global Annual-to-Decadal Update highlights that an El Nino event predicted for late 2026 increases the chances of 2027 becoming the next record-breaking year.
El Nino's Role
The natural climate phenomenon El Nino, which warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year and 2024 the hottest on record, at approximately 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial averages. El Nino typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months, causing widespread changes in winds, pressure, and rainfall patterns.
Paris Agreement Targets
The 2015 Paris climate accords aim to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The WMO predicts that annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026-2030 will range between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average. There is a 91 percent chance that at least one year in this period will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, and a 75 percent chance that the entire five-year mean will surpass this threshold. However, the likelihood of any single year exceeding 2 degrees Celsius is less than one percent.
Arctic Warming
The report also warns of significant warming in the Arctic, with temperatures over the next five northern hemisphere winters (November to March) predicted to be 2.8 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average, more than triple the global temperature anomaly. Precipitation patterns from May to September 2026-2030 are forecast to bring wet anomalies in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia, and dry anomalies over the Amazon.
The findings, produced by Britain's Met Office and the WMO's lead center for annual to decadal climate prediction, compile forecasts from 13 different institutes. While temporary breaches of the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit do not necessarily mean the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement is out of reach, the frequency of such breaches is expected to increase.
