A new investigation by the BBC reveals that Russian military losses in the war against Ukraine grew at their fastest rate in over two years during 2025, a period marked by intense international efforts to broker a peace deal. The surge in casualties coincided with diplomatic maneuvers involving the administration of then-US President Donald Trump.
A Staggering Toll: Confirmed Losses and the Hidden Figures
According to the BBC's detailed analysis, conducted in partnership with the independent outlet Mediazona and a team of volunteers, the names of almost 160,000 Russian personnel killed in Ukraine have been confirmed. This count is based on verified obituaries, official reports, social media, and new gravesites.
However, military experts consulted for the report believe this confirmed list likely represents only 45% to 65% of the true total. If accurate, this would place the actual number of Russian deaths in a staggering range of between 243,000 and 352,000 since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
The publication of obituaries serves as a key indicator of battlefield intensity. In 2025, a year focused on peace negotiations, the data shows a 40% increase in these published death notices compared to 2024.
Diplomacy and Death: The 2025 Timeline
The flow of casualties in 5 followed the rhythm of high-stakes diplomacy. The year began with a relative lull in January, but numbers climbed in February when Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held their first direct talks about ending the war.
A significant peak occurred in August, aligning with a high-profile meeting between the two presidents in Alaska—a event seen as ending Putin's international isolation. The most devastating period came late in the year. In October and November, when a planned second summit was shelved and the US presented a 28-point peace plan, an average of 322 Russian obituaries were published daily. This was double the daily average for 2024.
Analysts note that the Kremlin may have pursued territorial gains to strengthen its negotiating hand. A Putin aide, Yuri Ushakov, pointed to "recent successes" as having a positive impact on talks with the US.
The Human Cost: From Activist to Casualty
The changing face of Russia's war effort is embodied in stories like that of Murat Mukashev. An activist who had publicly condemned the invasion and supported LGBT rights and the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Mukashev found himself facing a decade in prison on drug charges in 2024.
While on trial, he was offered a contract with the defense ministry—a common tactic under a 2024 law that allows suspects to avoid conviction by joining the military. He initially refused and was sentenced. However, in prison in November 2024, influenced by Trump's promises of a quick peace, he changed his mind, hoping for release before a deal was struck.
Murat Mukashev died on June 11, 2025, fighting with an assault squad in Ukraine's Kharkiv region. His case is not unique. BBC data shows that the majority of Russians killed at the front in 2025 had no military connection at the war's start.
There has been a steady rise in casualties among so-called "volunteers"—those who signed contracts after the invasion began. While they constituted 15% of losses a year ago, by 2025 they accounted for one in every three Russian military deaths, now forming the majority of new recruits compared to pre-war professionals or mobilized soldiers.
The BBC's ongoing monitoring suggests that as diplomatic efforts reached their zenith, the human cost of Russia's war in Ukraine escalated dramatically, underpinning the conflict with a tragic and growing personal toll.
